RWP was born in Manchester, in the north of England, in the late 1950s, so he is very old. He really liked the north of England, which by 1965 was hip and had three TV channels, and where he went to a coed school. His parents, for reasons best known to themselves, then yanked him away, to Belfast and then Dublin, which had one TV channel that started up at 6 pm with the Angelus (Catholic call to prayer). He also had to go to an all boys school, where he realized he really missed girls. This probably let him focus on schoolwork, though, and at age 19, after he had finished college, he set off for America, where he still resides. He has a bachelors degree in biochemistry and a Ph.D. from Harvard in biophysics, and has lived also in Mainz, Germany, Setauket NY, and Richland WA. He currently divides his time between Nebraska, Rosslyn VA, and Florida.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Rape and statistics

Consider this: under Bayesian statistics, the prior proability that an accusation of rape is true is 50%, and that it is false is also 50%.

Now introduce one piece of information; fewer than half of all rape accusations are false. This is a very modest assumption; while Kanin put the rate of false accusations at 41%, most sources put it lower. Feminists, unsurprisingly but in the absence of any real backing, claim false accusations are virtually non-existent. In any case, let's just say, statistically, more accusations are true than false.

With this one piece of extra evidence, we change the probabilities. A man accused of rape is more likely to be guilty than innocent.

But with the 'preponderance of evidence' standard now enforced by Obama's Department of Education, a better than 50% probability of guilt is sufficient to convict. That means, going into a campus sexual assault hearing, if no evidence at all is presented against him, the man should (according to the rules) be convicted.

Facing nothing but an accusation, therefore, he bears the burden of proving himself innocent, turning the entire common law tradition of Anglo-American jurisprudence on its head.

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