Wednesday, June 22, 2016
After yesterday’s news about the Donald Trump campaign’s financial situation and a change in the campaign organization, Trump has managed to change the narrative, almost immediately.The naivety is breathtaking. The 'narrative' is that Trump has managed to scream and lie and insult his way to a 70% unfavorability rating. It hasn't changed. Calling Clinton 'corrupt' won't change it; I think most Americans are already dubious about her integrity. Point is, they're going to vote for her, at least suspecting she's corrupt, because the alternative is an unhinged lunatic.
Trump's only hope is to relieve people's doubts about his stability and his honesty. I don't think he can do that.
Friday, June 17, 2016
“What people don’t seem to understand is just because there is conscription, that does not mean that all women would serve in the infantry,” Senator Deb Fischer, Republican of Nebraska, said. “There are many ways to serve our country in the event of a national emergency.”
Yeah, that worked so well in the Vietnam war.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Todays' little effusion is titled "Sasse PR effort edits OWH story, fails to include apology". Of course, there is no evidence anyone associated with Sasse edited the Omaha World Herald story -- no journalist or editor would permit that. The only evidence anything at all changed in the article is the print headline is different from the original online edition headline. I'm sure that was the work of an editor. I'd bet a thousand dollars it was an OWH editor, and not a member of Sasse's staff. Selectively quoting from newspaper stories is what every politician does.
This follows yesterday's equally hysterically titled "Sasse trashes Nebraska Republicans". The offending statement was that he said was he thought NEGOP delegates "are not necessarily representative of what most Americans think and what most Nebraskans think"
According to Kratochvil,"A more tone-deaf and insulting statement has probably never been uttered in Nebraska politics.". On the contrary, it's a statement of the bloody obvious. The Nebraska GOP is representative mostly of Americans and Nebraskans who avoid thinking.
Seriously, get a grip, and try to make sure it's on reality.
Meanwhile, last weekend, the NEGOP has a chance to vote on the following resolution
Be it resolved that the Nebraska Republican Party strongly opposes all degrading remarks towards women, minorities and other individuals by Republican elected office holders or party officials, including candidates for President of the United States, because such rhetoric tarnishes the GOP’s legacy as the party of Lincoln, alienates millions of Americans, and jeopardizes Republican majorities in the Nebraska Legislature, the United States House of Representatives and United States Senate.
A more motherhood-and-apple-pie statement I can't think of. Who could possibly be against "degrading remarks towards women and minorities". Oh, yeah, the NEGOP was. Shamefully, they tabled it.
And then, of all things, Kratochvil said of the resolution on Monday "But other delegates saw it for what it was: a political IED. Improvised Explosive Device." No, Jerry. If a statement that 90% of Americans would likely sign on to is an IED, then you don't know what an IED is.
The NEGOP were so afraid of offending the obnoxious jackass who has hijacked the nomination process, they voted down a statement that called for civility in very general terms. That's shameful. And it's a shame what was once a useful political blog is now so warped that one has to fact-check everything in it. It appears the crudeness and mendaciousness of Donald Trump has now rubbed off on "the talk of Nebraska politics".
Sunday, May 8, 2016
Katz is evidently unaware of Jonathan Haidt's writing on the subject. His most recent piece on the exclusion of conservatives from social psychology speaks far better to his field than I, an outsider, ever could. He identifies several problems with this, including
- Confirmation bias
leading to widely-accepted claims that reflect the scientific community’s blind spots more than they reflect justified scientific conclusions (see, e.g., the three risk points discussed previously)
Negative attitudes regarding conservatives can produce a psychological science that mischaracterizes their traits and attributes.
Researchers may concentrate on topics that validate the liberal progress narrative and avoid topics that contest that narrative.
Liberal values and assumptions can become embedded into theory and method.
- In chemistry and materials science, liberal priorities of developing renewable energy has grossly distorted the funding process, to the extent that even fairly unlikely avenues to solar power are pursued, while other important areas of research go unexplored, and while fundamental scientific research often can only be done by piggybacking it on an applied science project.
- In biology/health science, vast amounts of money and effort are poured into projects whose purpose is to identify mostly implausible hypotheses linking common commercial chemicals with health problems. Particularly egregious has been the witchhunt against bisphenol-A. I challenge any physical scientist to look at some of the seminal papers about xenestrogens. He/she will be appalled at the shoddiness of the research; some of the results actually contradict the fundamental laws of chemical kinetics, for example.
- In agricultural science, research on the beneficial effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide have been discouraged or downplayed.
- In climate science, even academics who do not question the fundamental basis of climate change have been attacked and even subpoenaed by Congressional liberals, because of contentions that the effects of anthropogenic global warming on extreme events, for example, have been exaggerated, and cannot be detected in properly corrected data. Most egregious example: Roger Pielke Jr. was essentially forced out of the field for his heterodoxy.
- Research on the genetic and molecular basis of the large effects heredity has on intelligence has been almost abandoned in the US, out of fears of encouraging eugenicists and racists. This hurts our understanding of the brain.
- Larry Summers was forced out of Harvard for simply contending that the underrepresentation of women in certain fields might not be entirely due to sexist discrimination. Of course, most of the science actually backs Larry up. There is tons of research on sex differences and how they affect men's and women's interests and choices. Steven Pinker has written volubly on the subject.
- At NSF, the entire proposal process has been subordinated to social engineering. Now fully half of a proposal has to deal not with the science but what are euphemistically called 'broader impacts', which include shibboleths of pushing more women and minorities into STEM fields
Katz's discounting of all of this is puzzling. Of course, he's a liberal pundit; unlike those of us in academia, he has no obligation to be untendentious. But let me just note he is in no better a position discounting bias against conservatives than Southern Democrats were in discounting the effects of racial bias.
(Edit) Jonathan Haidt has another essay in praise of Nick Kristof here.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
Cepeda takes exception to Williamson's characterization of poor whites:
[B]asically, all this kerfuffle about working-class whites being angry enough to buy into Trump's rhetoric because globalization has destroyed decent-paying factory jobs is beside the point. Williamson thinks these losers should just get off their butts and go elsewhere to find jobs since wanting work in their own communities "is the indulgence of absurd sentimentality." Moreover, neither globalization nor immigration is to blame for ruining the quality-of-life and life expectancies of poor white people -- "nobody did this to them. They failed themselves," writes Williamson, noting that this conclusion comes "if you spend time in hardscrabble, white upstate New York, or eastern Kentucky, or my own native West Texas, and you take an honest look at the welfare dependency, the drug and alcohol addiction, the family anarchy -- which is to say, the whelping of human children with all the respect and wisdom of a stray dog." ... Williamson continues: "The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets. Morally, they are indefensible. ... The white American underclass is in thrall to a vicious, selfish culture whose main products are misery and used heroin needles. Donald Trump's speeches make them feel good. So does OxyContin. What they need isn't analgesics, literal or political. They need real opportunity, which means that they need real change, which means that they need U-Haul."Cepeda instantly casts this into the mold of victimization.
If Williamson's high-profile treatment of poor whites as drug-addicted mongrels whose communities deserve to die isn't a rallying cry for reaching across ethnic and racial boundaries to coalesce politically around the issues of elitism, poverty and lack of opportunity, I don't know what is.
Well, no it isn't. "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars / But in ourselves, that we are underlings." It's tough to be born poor; that doesn't make it a good idea to procreate children out of wedlock, spend your day fishing, and acquire a meth or oxycodone habit. Williamson is granting poor whites what Cepeda would deny them: agency. They can defer making babies until they can afford them; they can decline to make themselves addicts; most importantly, if where they live has no opportunities, they can move somewhere else that does. That some of them do not do these things is a choice on their part. And they're dying young, as a result.
Interestingly, a very similar observation about white men in economically depressed areas was made by Hanna Rosin, a feminist writer for the New Republic, in 'The End of Men'. (Ignore the clickbait title; it's a good book.) She pointed out that men in towns from which industry has moved out are basically useless. They can make babies, but they can't support them. Women in these places have been able to find a niche in the service economy -- sometimes two niches; they often work two jobs. But even thought women are the entire support of the household, the men refuse to do what stay-at-home wives previously did; do the chores. This comparative inflexibility, argues Rosin, is the principal problem these men have. They are frozen in place, pledged to a lifestyle that disappeared 50 years ago. Williamson would probably add that they could also move out of town to find a job.
So now Cepeda wants to add a new group to the class of people whose life sucks and it's somebody else's fault. And Williamson refuses, holding middle aged white men (like him, and me) to normal standards of personal responsibility.
The real question is; what percentage of the population can be classified as 'victims' before society falls apart?
Sunday, March 6, 2016
Friday, January 29, 2016
Out of curiosity, though, i decided to look up what NECSS is. And, sadly, it appears to be a fanboi conference (what's the gender neutral version of fanboi?), dispensing what I call scienceiness, which bears the same relationship to science that truthiness bears to truth. One clue is that they don't actually have many working scientists as speakers. The two headliners are now Richard Wiseman, a 'psychologist and magician', and Bill Nye, the 'Science Guy' with a bachelor's degree in engineering whose schtick got stale at least a decade ago. As regular speakers, just working alphabetically, we have
- 'physicist' who's published one paper in 3 years, on protein crystalization of all things
- a postdoc with an alarmingly sparse record
- a lawyer
- a woman with a legit. Ph.D. in physics who calls herself 'The Science Babe' (her appraisal of her own babeliness is a bit off, IMHO) but who seems to work on investment analysis and to have exactly one science paper to her credit.
- an 'Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice Administration at CSU Dominguez Hills'.
- some guy with a podcast
And while we're on the subject of the awful I fucking love science, they have an editorial this morning about sexism in astronomy. Now, actually, I have no idea how much sexism there is an astronomy, though there have been a couple of scandals recently, but it really annoys me when astronomy is taken as representative of science as a whole. And the editorial, which calls for 'a reboot of science', whatever that means, is written by an adjunct in sociology at a down-under dump called Swinburne University of Technology (no, I never heard of it either). The crescendo...
Similarly, science cannot reach its full potential without diversity, and diversity cannot flourish in a culture of racism, discrimination and fear. Research excellence cannot happen without rebooting science culture. The rest of us are ready for change. Are you?That's all very high-minded, but is it actually true? Just the most obvious example: the magnificent intellectual edifice of modern physics was created by a group of almost entirely white, almost entirely male, mostly German (or teutonophone) physicists. A very undiverse bunch indeed. There really isn't much actual evidence 'diversity', by the trendy definition, has increased the rate of scientific progress. And, of course, this woman is a sociologist; she has absolutely no first-hand knowledge of 'science culture'; I bet she doesn't know how to reboot her iPhone. And as for the 'us'; who are 'us', exactly?
Most scientists don't get involved in this sort of thing, because they regard it as a waste of time. I do, because I'm argumentative and easily annoyed. But it's really time we started standing up to this sort of dreck. There are compelling reasons to give everyone equal opportunity in science, and to stamp out some of the most obnoxious behavior of (a few) scientists; but the idea we can't do science without some specified quotas of the appropriate victim groups is pure idiocy.
Friday, January 1, 2016
About 6 months ago, I received an email from a close relative, telling me they had done a 23andme analysis, in the UK, and found they had a single copy of e4. I was able to reassure my relative that a single copy of e4 isn't that dangerous, and that one could easily reduce the chances of Alzheimer's back to average with some lifestyle changes. So it's useful information to have. I was however worried; both my mother and her mother died after prolonged and agonizing (for the family) dementia, and I could conceivably have double-e4. So I decided to get tested. And found out -- nothing.
This is because two years ago the Food and Drug Administration, an agency that is supposed to protect us from noxious foods and drugs, but in practice protects us from access to health information and cheap pharmaceuticals, told 23andme they couldn't give out health information without approval by the agency. So now 23andme will tell you if you carry genes for various rare conditions, but they aren't allowed to tell you if you have APOE-e4. Fortunately, I have a Ph.D. in biophysics, considered doing my Ph.D. with Wally Gilbert, who invented gene sequencing, and have taught courses on molecular phylogenetics. It wasn't hard to look up the chromosomal location of the APOE gene and simply read the sequence. And, after about 20 minutes of tedium, I found out what 23andme were forbidden to tell me; that I have two copies of APOE-e3 and thus have a pretty low risk of Alzheimer's. Good news, no? In fact, a friend then told me I could simply send the raw DNA sequence information to a site called promethease.com, and for $5 they'd deliver a report about a large number of polymorphisms that affect human health, though none as directly as APOE-e3. So I've found out I probably have a somewhat elevated risk of heart disease and cancer (no surprise, given my personal and family history) and a low risk of diabetes. Most of this I evaluated by doing a great deal of reading about the significance of these various SNPs. 23andme could have told me the same things, and saved me a lot of effort.
Morals? First, in the information age, the FDA is standing squarely in the path of progress, yelling 'STOP'. How can it be justified that the government can prevent a person from contracting with a company to find out information about their own genome? Second, it's pointless, because (as we used to say back at the dawn of the 'net) information interprets censorship as damage, and routes around it. A cumbersome bureaucracy like the FDA is simply not nimble enough to prevent small enterprising companies from selling interpretation of genomic information (or for that matter, from selling nootropics). All they can do is be an expensive nuisance.
Burgeoning access to information is likely to be the doom of the Mommy State, but in the interim, more and more people are going to be finding out government is usually not your friend. It's the friend of the companies who want to sell you drugs at 100 times their cost in other countries, and doctors who want to maintain their monopoly on health care.